Is gold the safe investment return choice in 2021? : Whether it is the tensions in the Middle East, Africa or elsewhere, it is becoming increasingly obvious that political and economic uncertainty is another reality of our modern economic environment. For this reason, investors typically look at gold as a safe haven during times of political and economic uncertainty. Why is this? Well, history is full of collapsing empires, political coups, and the collapse of currencies. During such times, investors who held gold were able to successfully protect their wealth and, in some cases, even use the commodity to escape from all of the turmoil. Consequently, whenever there are news events that hint at some type of global economic uncertainty, investors will often buy gold as a safe haven.
Return rates of physical gold are never profitable if you invest in the gold jewellery. The reason being that the price of jewellery is not only determined by the gold rates but it also includes the making charges and this is the just the half story i.e. when you purchase the gold. Now, when you sell the gold, the story is totally different, the making charges are not considered and you get the money only for the pure gold based on the gold rates of that particular day. Take for example; the gold rate in Mumbai during December 2015 was 27000 Indian rupees for ten grams of 24 karat gold and assuming that you bought a gold necklace of 20 grams for about 60,000 Indian rupees which include the making charges too. Now, due to some reason you want to sell it and you go to a shop who quotes the price only for the gold that necklace contains and not for the stones it has or the copper which weighs it down to only 13grams and the cost of 13 grams of pure gold in 2020 is only 40000 Indian rupees in 2020, obviously, it is a loss deal for you and thus, poor return rates are one of the downsides to keep in mind while investing in physical gold.
Rosenberg, the former Merrill Lynch North American Economist and current Chief Economist and Strategist for Gluskin Sheff, an independent investment firm for high net worth individuals, believes that “$3000 an ounce on gold may yet prove to be a conservative forecast.” He went on to say: “if the gold price to world GDP ratio were to ever scale up to the peak three decades ago, it would imply an ultimate peak for gold of $5,300 an ounce. if the relationship between gold and the M3 money measure where to revert to the 1990 high, then gold would move to $5,700 an ounce. if gold were merely put on the same footing as the CPI, and head back to the previous peaks in this ratio, it would suggest $2,300 as the peak in gold — only a double from here. if the gold price-M1 ratio was used then gold would go to $3,100 per ounce under the proviso that prior highs get re-established.”
The idea that gold preserves wealth is even more important in an economic environment where investors are faced with a declining U.S. dollar and rising inflation. Historically, gold has served as a hedge against both of these scenarios. With rising inflation, gold typically appreciates. When investors realize that their money is losing value, they will start positioning their investments in a hard asset that has traditionally maintained its value. The 1970s present a prime example of rising gold prices in the midst of rising inflation. The reason gold benefits from a declining U.S. dollar is because gold is priced in U.S. dollars globally. There are two reasons for this relationship. First, investors who are looking at buying gold (i.e., central banks) must sell their U.S. dollars to make this transaction. This ultimately drives the U.S. dollar lower as global investors seek to diversify out of the dollar. The second reason has to do with the fact that a weakening dollar makes gold cheaper for investors who hold other currencies. This results in greater demand from investors who hold currencies that have appreciated relative to the U.S. dollar. Find extra details at investing in gold.
Although the U.S. dollar is one of the world’s most important reserve currencies, when the value of the dollar falls against other currencies as it did between 1998 and 2008, this often prompts people to flock to the security of gold, which raises gold prices . The price of gold nearly tripled between 1998 and 2008, reaching the $1,000-an-ounce milestone in early 2008 and nearly doubling between 2008 and 2012, hitting around the $1800-$1900 mark. The decline in the U.S. dollar occurred for a number of reasons, including the country’s large budget and trade deficits and a large increase in the money supply.
Simply put, gold futures are contracts to buy and sell gold at a certain point in time. Each contract represents a certain amount of gold, and depending on the specifications can pay out in either a dollar amount or the physical gold. Gold futures can be very large, making this a strategy best suited to investors with the capital to purchase high-valued contracts. There are also options on gold futures to consider. This provides investors the option to purchase a futures contract for a preset price at a certain point in time. Options can help buyers leverage their initial investment, though they are required to pay the underlying value of the gold to fully own the option. Both gold futures and options are considered to be volatile — making them more difficult to break into and manage when compared to other forms of gold investments.